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, turnout is crucial. >> turnout has been crucial for three weeks. in other words, in colorado, nevada, north carolina, it may have been crucial before today, but on election day, as nancy mentioned in her piece, republicans have to turn their base out. >> stay with us, we'll be speaking with both campaigns this morning. we begin with david axelrod. david, good morning. >> good morning, charlie. happy election day. >> well, thank you. happy election day to you and everybody else in the great state of illinois. so tell me what it is that's most crucial today for you to win. >> well, you've been using the word, which is turnout. we've been expecting a close election for a year and a half. we've built a tremendous organization. we've got 200,000 or more election shifts volunteers set up. we've got 5,000 stations in neighborhoods across the battleground states. and now it's time to turn out that vote. and that's what this election is going to be about. we are happy about those early vote numbers. those early vote numbers are very significant. we go in with a great advantage. >> one thing t
, in virginia, even in ohio what they saw as a lead or slight lead now has slipped. novemb nevada off the table. it's changed this race. charlie and norah? >> political director john dickerson and national journal white house correspondent major garrett have been with us throughout this campaign. welcome. >> good to be with you. >> an exciting race. >> indeed, it is. >> let me start with john. what's the pathway, possible pathway for governor romney? >> well, let's start context. if we look at the map and we assign those states that are red states and blue states to the two candidates, president obama starts with 237. romney starts with 191. the president's already got a head start. and that means that if you look at all the possible scenarios, president obama has about 431 ways he can get to 270. mitt romney had just 76. let's look at mitt romney. the best possible scenario for him is that he wins florida. we'll give florida to him. then we'll give him the other big one, ohio. 18 electoral votes. then 15 in north carolina. let's give him 13 in virginia. still not there yet. 266. this gives you
that iowa and nevada are more or less won. early vote and demographic advantages they built and ground game advantages. you put those three together that's done they also believe they have a very good chance in new hampshire. a senior obama adviser said new hampshire is like chinatown for jake guinness. we feel about it but it leaves us a bit squeamish. >> let's talk about ohio because that has been the focus of so much of our attention ohio. it looks like that state is trending towards president obama. is that why we saw governor romney make a play for wisconsin, for pennsylvania, even men they were in over the weekend campaigning trying to enlarge the electoral map for romney? >> even if romney wins florida as we went through there, if he done win ohio he's got pind the votes somewhere else. if he loses ohio the paths they shrink down the single digits for governor romney. to increase his chances to get to 270 he has to find another state and they are looking for other states. pennsylvania, 96% of the vote happens on election day. not like when these early voting states. so, it's a razzle
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